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Blog Posts for November 2012
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My friend, Joan, asks me today, "What if you converted this into a game app?" Genius. Also, where Lizzie helped me organize my thoughts into Seeing, Joan is proving instrumental in the next book, Being. Great conversations are the beginning of so many things. |
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Here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Democrats, with these states sown up: | CA | 55 | D | | CT | 7 | D | | DC | 3 | D | | DE | 3 | D | | HI | 4 | D | | IL | 20 | D | | MA | 11 | D | | MD | 10 | D | | ME | 4 | D | | MN | 10 | D | | NH | 4 | D | | NJ | 14 | D | | NM | 5 | D | | NY | 29 | D | | OR | 7 | D | | RI | 4 | D | | VT | 3 | D | | WA | 12 | D | | Total | 205 | |
And here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Republicans, with these states sown up: | AK | 3 | R | | AL | 9 | R | | AR | 6 | R | | AZ | 11 | R | | FL | 29 | R | | GA | 16 | R | | ID | 4 | R | | IN | 11 | R | | KS | 6 | R | | KY | 8 | R | | LA | 8 | R | | MO | 10 | R | | MS | 6 | R | | MT | 3 | R | | NC | 15 | R | | ND | 3 | R | | NE | 5 | R | | OK | 7 | R | | SC | 9 | R | | SD | 3 | R | | TN | 11 | R | | TX | 38 | R | | UT | 6 | R | | WV | 5 | R | | WY | 3 | R | | Total | 235 | |
That leaves eight states. One of the trends in polling has been overweighted sampling toward the Democrats. The turnout model for 2008, used by most pollsters, isn't right. Republican fervor is up, Democrat enthusiasm is down, and that's just obvious. So using a 2008 model is silly and disingenuous. So for that reason, here's how I score it: Ohio: Romney, which brings his total to 253.
Colorado: Romney, which brings his total to 262.
Wisconsin: the state that re-elected Scott Walker by 7 points in the recall election will also go Romney, which brings him to 272. That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These could all go either way, frankly, but regardless, it doesn't matter. But for what it's worth: Iowa: Obama.
Michigan: Obama.
Nevada: Romney.
Pennsylvania: Obama, in a squeaker.
Virginia: Romney. Which brings the total to 291-247, and Romney wins without contention. Let's hope business can begin to get back to business on November 7. ETC:  |
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Obama's Concession Speech |
It would go something like this: "I know a lot of you expected this in November, but here in February, we finally have all of the votes recounted - twice. By hand. When an election is this close, you can't be too careful - but it seems that 346 to 192 was in fact correct. For the many of you who support me, I'm leaving the campaign web site open for your continued donations. There's still a lot of work to be done. So to Mitt Romney, I say you're welcome... and no, I don't know where Michelle put the keys to Air Force One." |
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  I voted. Did you? |
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Well, America failed its IQ test. Time to get out of debt and go Galt.  At least Canada likes business and oil and gas. ETC: I was gonna write a longer post, but what this guy said: Good hardworking people should give up and go Galt. The tipping point is the 2012 election. Will the makers finally succumb to the takers? It's pointless to think that if America reelects the most unqualified disastrous president in recent memory, we should stand our ground and continue fighting. it's a signal that marxist free-lunchism and free birth control for everyone trump economic well-being and prosperity in the minds of the masses. Give up. Go Galt. Protect what few assets you have left, and start to hunker down for the coming storm. America is beyond screwed, well past the fiscal insanity of a number of EU countries. Think of it this way - we sit and watch California destroy itself and wonder who could be so foolish as to remain there and dedicate himself to indentured servitude in a state headed for disaster. Why don't those fools just leave!! Same for Venezuela. as they descend into chaos and totalitarianism, do they reject Chavez more? The answer is plainly no. The spiral down the drain is irreversible and obvious. The more the government creates misery, the more they create programs to help people cope with the misery they've created, and we achieve a perpetual negative feedback loop. My advice is simple - if Obama is reelected, get a lawyer and a financial advisor, cash out as much of your assets as you can, and prepare yourself for a nosedive off a cliff. anything else would be imprudent and irresponsible to yourself and your dependents. Who wants to be a Dagny Taggart dedicating themselves to a life of indentured servitude trying to correct the wrongs of a heavy handed government? I will not be volunteering. I didn't give up on America, America gave up on me. It's time.MORE ETC: Anecdotal, but I'm hearing it from many I know personally and reading it from others: For what it's worth, as a portent of what we can expect from "job creators" under a second obama administration, I'll share this with you.One of my clients is a smallish electronics firm. They employ about 62 full time employees (I think that's the number.) This company is engaged in a relatively new business model and it's very competitive and quite difficult (at this time) to achieve margins greater than 4 to 8% With expansion (which was definitely on the table prior to this election) the org was looking at bringing on another 10 to 15 employees over the next year and investing several million in new equipment and facilities. With obama's reelection and the looming inevitability of the full implementation of obamacare as well as some other fed regs, a significant number of those employees will be given pink slips prior to Jan1. |
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Obama won the election not because he laid out a spectacular vision. He didn't. Obama won the election not because his last four years were wonderful. They weren't. Obama won the election for one simple reason: he promised government stuff on the backs of the rich. And truth be told, that appeals to more Americans than actually earning a living. I know of a local tea party leader who sat with me eighteen months ago during a discussion with Tim Pawlenty. His concern was that his contributions to social security be paid back to him. Now there's nothing wrong with that request if his social security were kept in a separate account with his name on it, but it's not - it's part of a general fund. And it's been spent by politicians elected during his lifetime. Therefore, if there's a shortfall, it would be paid by his kids and their kids. If some tea party folks can't see the fiscal problems of passing debt onto other generations, then we're screwed. So I looked at this election as an IQ test. A math quiz, if you will. Do Americans understand that they can't get free stuff forever? The resounding answer: no. Now, I can't fix that. In fact, millions of people like me can't fix that. We tried. We were called racists and bigots and greedy and such. We ignored all of that and kept on working. But without effect. Only two states - Indiana and North Carolina - flipped to red during 2012. And Indiana elected a Democrat as its senator. So fair enough, America. I hear you. You want your government stuff, no matter the cost to your and my children. I work 80 hours a week for my money. America tells me that they want me to help pay for their government stuff. Anyone who knows me knows that I am generous. I frequently give some of my work away to help a cause in which I believe or a client. I'm not stingy. But I do want to be in control of what I choose to give. America, on the other hand, elected the candidate who admits his desire to raise my taxes. So fair enough, America. I hear you. You want me to go along with your request to take what you didn't earn. But I say no. I don't have to be an American when the country I love ceases to be America. So I will work harder yet to become debt-free and then move to Canada. The tax rates are roughly equal. In fact, they're actually coming down. And Canada's corporate tax rate is 15%. So I will move my business there. I encourage others to consider where they might be free to pursue life as they would like. Me, I have determined that I don't want to live in a country run by someone of the same mien as Hugo Chavez. For the rest of you who choose to stay:  |
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I'm convinced that the voting booth, for an Obama voter, is really just Skinner's Box.  |
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Not that my predictions are worth anything, but these seem fairly easy to make: - The national debt will soon go above $20 trillion.
- Benghazi won't receive any coverage, nor will Fast and Furious.
- Michelle Obama will continue her lavish vacations on our dime.
- The Republicans will cave, as they already are. Boehner saying that he's open to revenue, but not tax increases, is disingenuous. Revenue to the government only comes by taking money from the people, so what's the difference?
- The press won't hold Obama accountable. I don't see him as a lame duck president at all. I think he's stronger than ever.
- I know a lot of people with serious money worried about financial collapse greater than 2008. Have to say - the signs are there.
- More entrepreneurs and small business folks will be pushed out of the economy or leave by choice. Corporations will assert greater leverage in concert with the government. Expect more bailouts and takeovers and regulatory encroachment...
So in short - more of the same, but accelerated. |
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If That's What You Want... |
If America voted for a tax increase, then I say let's do that. But not on just income, but on wealth. Ours is a system of income tax. We only tax income. We're leaving so much money on the table. Overwhelmingly, wealthy Americans voted for Obama. Certainly sports figures and entertainment types did. So tell you what - let's tax total wealth. Every asset. Coins, antiques, furniture, cars, homes, holding and assets of every stripe. If you own it, it's assessed. Let's start with 1%. You have a net worth of $1 million? You owe $10,000. That's not much, right? And this would be on top of income tax, not in replacement of. Bill Gates and Oprah and Bill Maher and John Kerry and Warren Buffet - eat your heart out. Think of the revenue, all from money sitting on the sidelines. As Biden said, C'mon - get in the game! If they want taxes, and if taxing the wealthy is cool, then tax the wealth of the wealthy. Every bit of it. I know that every person who voted for Obama would love this. They keep telling us that they want to be taxed. It's patriotic, don't you know... so let's tax wealth and income! |
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I said a while back that I can tell whether you're an American by asking one simple question: "How hard will you defend the private property ownership of others?" But I err. There's a second question I need to ask: "Do you like to work and be rewarded for it?" The answer, I fear, for the majority of those living in America today is "No." Instead, they want others to work and to receive the benefit of the labor of others. Which makes this a nation of wannabe slave owners, who feel entitled to the fruit of others' labor on their behalf. What person who enjoys work wants to live in that? |
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America needs a Kevin Page, Parliamentary Budget Officer for Canada. It's 25 minutes long, but listen to the podcast. The first five minutes are gold, if you want a preview of what will be necessary in the United States. It won't happen in this administration, but it will certainly have to happen in the next. The bottom line: citizens love him and what he's doing... the government? Not so much. |
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