Here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Democrats, with these states sown up:
And here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Republicans, with these states sown up:
That leaves eight states.
One of the trends in polling has been overweighted sampling toward the Democrats. The turnout model for 2008, used by most pollsters, isn't right. Republican fervor is up, Democrat enthusiasm is down, and that's just obvious. So using a 2008 model is silly and disingenuous.
So for that reason, here's how I score it:
Ohio: Romney, which brings his total to 253.
Colorado: Romney, which brings his total to 262.
Wisconsin: the state that re-elected Scott Walker by 7 points in the recall election will also go Romney, which brings him to 272.
That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These could all go either way, frankly, but regardless, it doesn't matter.
But for what it's worth:
Pennsylvania: Obama, in a squeaker.
Which brings the total to 291-247, and Romney wins without contention.
Let's hope business can begin to get back to business on November 7.