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Election

 

Here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Democrats, with these states sown up:

CA55D
CT7D
DC3D
DE3D
HI4D
IL20D
MA11D
MD10D
ME4D
MN10D
NH4D
NJ14D
NM5D
NY29D
OR7D
RI4D
VT3D
WA12D
Total205

And here's how it breaks down tomorrow for the Republicans, with these states sown up:

AK3R
AL9R
AR6R
AZ11R
FL29R
GA16R
ID4R
IN11R
KS6R
KY8R
LA8R
MO10R
MS6R
MT3R
NC15R
ND3R
NE5R
OK7R
SC9R
SD3R
TN11R
TX38R
UT6R
WV5R
WY3R
Total235

That leaves eight states.

One of the trends in polling has been overweighted sampling toward the Democrats. The turnout model for 2008, used by most pollsters, isn't right. Republican fervor is up, Democrat enthusiasm is down, and that's just obvious. So using a 2008 model is silly and disingenuous.

So for that reason, here's how I score it:

Ohio: Romney, which brings his total to 253.
Colorado: Romney, which brings his total to 262.
Wisconsin: the state that re-elected Scott Walker by 7 points in the recall election will also go Romney, which brings him to 272.

That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These could all go either way, frankly, but regardless, it doesn't matter.

But for what it's worth:

Iowa: Obama.
Michigan: Obama.
Nevada: Romney.
Pennsylvania: Obama, in a squeaker.
Virginia: Romney.

Which brings the total to 291-247, and Romney wins without contention.

Let's hope business can begin to get back to business on November 7.

ETC:

 


by Brett Rogers, 11/5/2012 7:29:26 PM
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