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For me and most of the other writers I know, writing is not rapturous. In fact, the only way I can get anything written at all is to write really, really shitty first drafts. -- Anne Lamott
A week ago, I said that Barack Obama's campaign is over due to his serious foreign policy gaffes.
Today, news of exactly this, as Hillary Clinton holds not just a double-digit lead over Obama, but a 22% lead. Clinton is too smart to blow a lead that big with her own gaffe. I mean, even if her husband had, you know, like an affair or something, it wouldn't change anything.
UPDATED: As if on cue, there's this today: "I have it on very, very good authority that major opposition research has already been conducted on Bill Clinton, and it's going to be a massive smear campaign against him," he says. A group of former intelligence officers, he says, is "going to try to cripple Hillary through Bill." - I don't think this will stop her nomination.
Plouffe also pointed to Obama's prowess at raising money from 258,000 individual donors as a sign of his strength. Obama raised about $5 million more than Clinton during the second quarter.
And you can spend more money than the competition for marketing, but if the product is bad, it's wasted money.
He'll learn and he'll come back later and be smarter. Maybe his supporters can look at this as an investment in the future.
So if Hillary's the nominee, who's it for the Republicans?
It ain't McCain. He blew that with McCain-Feingold's chokehold on free speech and his support for amnesty.
Thompson? Maybe. Let's how he runs once he's actually in the dang thing.
Giuliani? I would love to see Giuliani get it, just to tweak the religious right. And I believe that any enemy who would try to hurt us would suffer in hell for it because he wouldn't put up with any crap. But I have no idea how he'll govern.
Romney? I think he's the most qualified executive running. A very impressive guy. Can he get enough traction? Here in Iowa, he got into a row with a local rude talk-show host, Jan Mickelson. I watched this video, and Romney handles the incessant interruptions really well.
(I've listened to Jan's show in the past, and I like Jan, but he was utterly pompous in this "interview." Bad form.)
I can't guage who the Republican nominee might be. I'd say that Giuliani and Romney have equal chance, with Thompson as a dark horse, and I think that in his own way, Newt Gingrich will factor into this somehow - though I think he has no chance whatsoever of getting the nomination.
I'm reading some articles of a Hillary/Obama ticket. That would be strong for the Dems, would give him some time to get "seasoned," but with the current tone of their campaigns I wonder if too much damage has already been done.
Fred needs to shut up or run. As they say, "sh** or get off the pot." Rudy I like tweaking of the religious right does bring a bit of a smile to my face. Rudy is human, not a perfect cookie cutter candidate. I kinda like that the is flawed, just like I am, and agree with some of his views. I agree on Newt not having a chance but you are right, he will factor into this. He has enough power to keep the conservative agenda on the plate. Romney, the book is still out for me. I just haven't heard enough from him.
